One other interpretation of Minerva's comment about Shah is that Shah is a wizard who acted as a changeling for the Swithins. The muggleborn child is stolen and replaced by a polyjuiced (or otherwise disguised wizard) who then 'dies' awhile later. Definitely a dark take on Order operations, but possible. That would explain why it didn't matter who the second person was, they've got more than one who does it.
Re: I think you're right!