Date: 2013-06-04 10:43 pm (UTC)
teceler: foamy wavelets--default (Default)
From: [personal profile] teceler
Aw, thanks, but [personal profile] kiya did most of the work and analysis. I just grabbed those links from the recent stuff.

And yeah, that's really the key question isn't it? And I think you've pinned it down fairly well. I'm not sure what connections he had with the others before Voldemort's rise to power started--that could also have been a secondary factor, but I seriously doubt it was the primary one. He seems to prize the world they have (or, well, I suppose there's a remote possibility that's he's trying to convince himself it was worth it, but I doubt that.) And considering how fuzzy he is on the blood issue, I think is is primarily the issue of the Dark Arts.

Well, at the moment, the scales seem to be tipped enough with the problems with working with Voldemort to at least strain his loyalties. But I understand what you mean. I think something happening now is more likely to have an impact, because he's stretched so close to the breaking point.

He does greatly value loyalty, and that's been very clear recently. But Voldemort isn't the only person he has loyalty to, and I think that'll be a very important factor, especially with Voldemort's neglect of that. I think what's going on with Lucius is going to be an important factor, especially if Voldemort starts punishing the family (and especially if Narcissa enlists Barty to help protect Draco or Lucius, as someone was proposing elsewhere). I think something happening with Siz and Raz might also be a factor--especially since he promised Siz that if it was in his power he wouldn't allow her to be harmed. (Also Sally-Anne, Justin, those of the ISS with ties to his circle (Hydra, Draco, Pansy) and Minerva could be factors.)

That said, (re: Macnair) I really can't see him working with the Order. There's too much history and bad blood and such there, on both sides. Raz I could maybe barely see working with them, under the right circumstances, but I can't stretch my imagination far enough to see Doholov and the Order working together.
I could see him working to take down Voldemort, though, given the right kind of pressure. I can even see him maybe working with the ISS, eventually, if very loosely, and if only because everyone survived the incident at the DoM and is recovering. (I can't see the Order being particularly happy about this, but I can also see them decided to take care of him after the overthrow Voldemort).

I think, honestly, of the Council, Doholov is in the best position to try to pull off a coup if he wanted to, in terms of allies. Especially if he could manage to persuade Barty (which would probably be touch and go, and depend largely on what finally pushed him over the edge, but is definitely something to consider.) On the other hand, if Voldemort has any idea of how much power Doholov has in the Council--which he can't be entirely blind to--Doholov would have to be very careful (which I can see him pulling off) and would probably have trouble getting near the horcruxes.

Anyway, back on the topic at hand. I think if the LP had killed Lucius during that audience, one of the (many) affects would have been to break Doholov's loyalty to Voldemort. (This was part of the reason--along with all the other interesting affects it would have on character arcs--that I was so worried for Lucius there). So something like that. I'm really not seeing him going now Macnair's path, though, as I said. I think he'd put together his own conspiracy. He certainly has the resources. And I have a sneaking suspicion if he did so he'd try to recruit some of the ISS (which was how I saw them getting involved above), because, well, some of them are among his best students, and they've proven themselves willing to work against the regime (breaking into the DoM?).

Ahem. Which is to say, when I'm not getting distracted by thinking out loud about possibilities, he would be very valuable in overthrowing Voldemort, if he could be pushed to that point. Also, it would be really really awesome to watch. Well, fascinating, at least.

I'm not sure what exactly would prove the breaking point for his loyalty to Voldemort, or if we'll even hit it (though the players do seem to be setting up some kind of question as to the matter). And, um, I'm going to stop rambling now, but his response to Barty's post, and what Hydra ends up finding out, are going to be telling, as are his actions in the near future.
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