Misc. Conspiracy Theories

[black-dog.livejournal.com]

The Halloween/troll business made me think harder about canon parallels, especially regarding Quirrell and the Stone. These really aren’t fully-developed theories but just hypotheses to think about, and maybe areas to watch for further clues.

1. Assuming the Stone is hidden in the castle (which seems like a safe assumption), is the conspiracy to “steal” the Stone a bad conspiracy in this world? How might it be useful in supporting the Order or defeating Voldemort? What is Quirrell's role? McGonagall admitted to Arthur that the LP would be watching out for any insider who tried to steal the Stone. Maybe the Order -- or the Machiavellian Dumbledore -- needs someone independent to get it out. We know Quirrell was fired for pro-Muggle sympathies -- in this universe, could he be aligned with the good guys? Perhaps through Dumbledore, and without even the full knowledge of the Order?

2. I think it was lapin_agile who suggested the “borrowing” of Harry’s broom might be related to an attempt to penetrate the Stone’s defenses. Could any of the other temporary borrowings and thefts – Ron’s quill/notebook, Michael’s necklace, Pansy’s doll’s-head, Draco’s tea – be connected to the same plan? Honestly I can’t see how, but there’s a really odd pattern of objects disappearing and reappearing, in ways that sometimes fly just beneath suspcion but that may point to an intruder with an odd interest in particular students and their possessions. Would there be any point in returning these objects with some kind of enchantment on them?

3. Muggle music heard (maybe just in a dream) at 3 am – is someone trying to get past Fluffy?

4. Speaking of intruders -- is there an Invisibility Cloak in play in this Universe? If so, then presumably Dumbledore (and his allies) still have it. Is it being used to penetrate the castle?

5. I love Pansy’s creepy doll’s-head, and it’s kind of interesting to take its influence on Pansy at face value. There could be a loose parallel to Tom's Diary, as something that talks back to you when you least expect it, and messes with your head. The Players are steering us away from Imperio, at least from any specific suspicion about Pansy releasing the Troll, but I wonder if there are other ways that a student under Imperius (or something like Imperius) would be useful in penetrating the Stone’s defenses? Is it significant that someone tried to smash Pansy’s doll’s head – perhaps there a difference in tactics among the conspirators, maybe between a manipulative Quirrel and, say, a more sympathetic Lupin?

ETA: We have confirmation from Pansy that the doll's head was enchanted, but was Professor Acton telling the whole truth?

I really can’t work any of this out yet, but I figured I’d share my paranoia to see if it strikes any sparks. Thoughts?

Comments

[black-dog.livejournal.com]

I think your version is plausible too -- I honestly don't know and have just started thinking about this. The argument seems to turn on Minerva's "on the lookout" comment, which may be ambiguous. But I'm not sure how V could know that the Stone was being used if he weren't somehow already watching it.

I think your point about the public cover story is a strong one. I can think of a couple of possible answers, though they're not absolutely compelling. Certianly V has a political interest in improving his political control of the goblins -- an embarassing breach of security at Gringotts, followed by an offer of V's protection, might create the right sort of context for this, and Bella is obviously undertaking some kind of negotiation with them. Bella might be in on the real story, or she might not -- does V trust all his colleagues on something so close to his personal obsessions, or would the quest for immortality creep out some of the more "mainstream" DEs? And finally, if V needs help in learning how to use the Stone, does he fully trust the Department of Mysteries, in London (we know Lucius has some issues with them) or does he prefer to put the problem in the hands of a more selective team at Hogwarts?

Does it make sense that Minerva would be hiding the stone under V's nose? But the Order has a reasonably effective network for moving in and out of England (see Alice, for example) and certainly the Stone would be even safer out of the country. And as a practical matter, could Minerva really block off the third floor corridor, keeping a whole section of the school off limits, without bringing the non-Order faculty into the secret? We know how anxious she is about the deceptions she undertakes for the sake of the students.

And is there any evidence that the Order has any kind of active plans for the Stone? Minerva talks about other conspiracies with the other members of the Order, but we really haven't seen any conversations about the Stone and what they might be planning to doing with it. It may be that the fact of the Stone's presence is a bit of intelligence Minerva learned from V because she is Headmaster, and she's shared the bare fact with the Order, but none of them have any immediate ideas or active plans that focus on the Stone. Sirius' comment about consulting Flamel seems offhand, as though it's something they hadn't previously given any thought to.

All this leads me in turn to think about Dumbledore as an independent agent. He's suddenly very interested in re-connecting with Hogwarts, and it may be about more than just the journals. D also seems to be very interested in Lupin, who has an uneasy relationship with the Order but seems to have D's respect. So I'm wondering if Lupin and maybe Quirrel represent a third force, aligned with Dumbledore, who are working on the same side but independently of the Order. There are lots of reasons why DD, as supreme puppetmaster for the order, might compartmentalize knowledge about the Stone. After all, Minerva and the known Order members might at some point attract aggressive scrutiny from a Legilimens like Voldemort.

It's a reach. But it's not obviously wrong. It seems plausible to me that having the Stone at Hogwarts may be V's plan, not the Order's. And if the Order isn't focused on the Stone, then DD & allies are plausible candidates for any effort to steal it. It needs more thought, and there are some problems with the theory, but it's not obvious that the Order is driving the Stone story.

[lapin-agile.livejournal.com]

So between us we've listed a bunch of stuff we need more information about. Guess we'll have to keep reading!

*waves at the players*

[black-dog.livejournal.com]

Guess we'll have to keep reading!

And re-reading, in case any old stuff turns out to be a clue, in light of later developments.

*looks innocently at players*

[longstrider.livejournal.com]

Remember that there were 2 attempts to access the vault at Gringott's in cannon. Hagrid and then Quirrel iirc. Quote from The Prophet in HP and the Sorcerer's Philosopher's Stone "Gringotts Break-in Latest... widely believed to be the work of Dark wizards or witches unknown. Gringotts goblins today insisted that nothing had been taken. The vault that was search had in fact been emptied the same day."

So, the Order took it out legitimately and are hiding the stone from V or V took it out to hide at Hogwarts for some reason and then someone, the Order, Quirrel, Regulus, whoever broke in to try and get to it OR someone staged a break in knowing it was already gone, V to discredit the goblins... er someone else for some unknown purpose?

[black-dog.livejournal.com]

Interesting. So under my theory, above, V's agents would also have had to have sneaked in once, undetected, to take the stone, and then created the second incident -- either by staging a fake break-in, or by just showing up and raising havoc when the stone was missing. It's a fair question how they could have pulled that off.

Or else, I wonder if maybe the roles are reversed. V's agents took the stone in the normal way, just like Hagrid did in canon, and then someone on the Order's side, maybe DD's hypothetical "third force," attempted an actual break-in and was unsuccessful. So now they have to figure out how to get it out of Hogwarts . . .

Not enough info to decide what, if any, of this is the most likely. Which is half the fun! :)