Population issues

[longstrider.livejournal.com]

I'm reposting this from the previous thread as it isn't really related to the original topic and that thread is now humongous. I've made a few additions.

I was actually thinking about the camps and the different classes of people in Voldie's England. (Has it been established what portion of the Isles are behind the wards? Is it just Britian, B & Scotland, B & S & Wales or does it include Ireland as well?) I assume at minimum B&S and Seamus's presence would seem to indicate Ireland as well.

We have 4 to 7 classes of people, (1)Pure bloods, blood traitors, those of 'mixed' heritage but several generations back, (2)half-bloods, (3)muggle-born, (4)muggles and squibs.

A couple assumptions/questions here. In canon the muggle to wizard ratio is HUGE (UK pop minus N Ireland in 1981 was ~55,000,000, Ireland and N Ireland add another 3.7 million & even the most generous estimates of wizarding pop are in the 10,000 range unless JKR ignored hundreds of students at Hogwarts or failed to mention multiple other schools in the UK) multiple 1000s to 1 at best for wizards, specifically 5,900:1. If those numbers hold and there hasn't already been a massive slaughter/exodus of muggles this is a logistical problem of control so those in power need to be looking for an intermediary population to control the muggles or even more draconian population controls. When I say massive I mean MASSIVE, 90% reduction in muggle population still leaves the ratio at a barely manageable 600:1. Modern high-tech prisons have a prisoner to guard ratio of 4 or 5 to 1. I tried to find some numbers for the British in Imperial India, but couldn't. Found lots of over all and breakdowns of the native population but no numbers for Anglo or British born. And that's a massively different situation, not camps, very large intermediary population, old government basically coopted and then repeatedly reworked. The best I could find is 45 million in the British Isles and 256 million 'total souls' in India.

However in Wizarding Britian I see no intermediary population for them to coopt. Squibs haven't been touched on as to there treatment (but the absence of Flich speaks volumes,) Half-bloods are being integrated into the wizard population (see numerous examples in the journals,) and the most obvious choice, muggle-borns, is verboten by the PTB. Along with this we've seen no indication of a class of muggle 'foremen' or collaborators given special privileges. Arthur works with a 'mayor' but it really looks like the exception rather than the norm. There's nothing on the order of the Brahmans & Rajputs. This means (barring the aforementioned draconian population reductions something higher than 95%, quite possibly higher than 99%) that Voldie's regime is headed for problems, see real world British Imperial India & Apartheid South Africa.

Now we may just be hand waving the population problems (as JKR did, it's hard to reconcile Hogwarts student numbers and the Quidditch Cup audience numbers and well we're all familiar with her maths... issues) or working with different world assumptions or it's just not plot relevant so it's being ignored but my analytical brain and world building experience makes me want to poke at this sort of thing.

PS there's some really disturbing stuff out there from that era produced by the British, 'Aryan and higher class natives' is just the beginning.

Comments

Transfering this from other thread (with additions)...

[lapin-agile.livejournal.com]

We have had theoretical discussion of squibs in the kids conversations on how magic works: they are being taught that squibs are caused when a Muggle family steals the squib's magic in order to endow their own Muggleborn child with magical ability. Lucius had to admit to Pansy that the Ministry is studying how that works and can't yet explain it.

I've wondered about Filch's absence. Where are the Wizards warehousing their squib children?

As for Muggle "foremen"; I think you are right that the Ministry doesn't have a program of elevating some to manage the rest, but Arthur does this in an ad hoc way when he goes to the camps just before Bonfire Night and talks to the chap who had been elected Mayor of his city (http://alt-arthur.livejournal.com/2355.html), according him respect and seeking his help in keeping the disturbances down to a minimum.

I ended up meeting earlier this week with the Headman at the Norwich Muggle camp, a man by the name of Gideon Knight. I was impressed enough by him that I checked his file after the meeting: seems he was in the middle of standing election for mayor of his city before the Troubles swept him into the camps along with everyone else, and I've no doubt there's a keen mind beneath that bland exterior. He's lucky he wasn't killed along with so many other political leaders in 1985. Probably thanks his stars that his election had not been finalised yet when the Lord Protector came to power.

Arthur makes a pragmatic appeal, saying that the camps can't afford to lose numbers to another round of Muggle bashing by the DEs, and the man, though he distrusts Arthur, seems to see the logic of this. This supports your observation as the exception that proves the rule: Arthur is definitely NOT acting according to Ministry policy in dealing with this "headman" of the camp.

As for population purges. We do have some signs that there were mass killings early on in the LP's seizure of Britain from Muggle control:

1. Arthur's description of the troubles in the quote above, which reveals that they killed all the elected leaders early on
1A. Equivocal evidence about the fate of the Royal family: Voldemort and Harry lived in Buckingham Palace (referenced several times, but first by Dennis), and yet, Pansy made an admiring reference, during her pro-Muggle rants, about the Prince of Wales
2. Lupin (thanks, Wintercreek!) told Harry in comments that Muggle doctors were among the first to be killed, but then struck through that comment (http://alt-lupin.livejournal.com/2115.html?thread=10819#t10819), apparently thinking that the LP would not much like his son to learn that lesson in realpolitik.

I think, on the whole, this evidence supports (or allows) your implication that we haven't seen signs of a purge of massive proportions. Instead, it seems that the Protectorate wiped out what you term the "intermediate class," seeking to eliminate all leaders who might rally and manage the masses, but leaving the masses mostly alive and subdued in the camps. Sirius (and Dumbledore?) and the Order (in so far as it is acting in a uniform way) appear to share your assessment of the flaws of the Protectorate's strategy, seeking to mobilize the masses to rise up against the Protectorate's very small defensive force.

What's harder to measure is how much magic makes up for the massive population gap. That's what makes this situation different from real world colonial examples.

[wintercreek]

Interesting that both political leaders and doctors were killed early on - I wonder what other groups were eliminated. Educated Muggles of all stripes seems unlikely, as Hermione's parents are still around despite their advanced training as dentists. And what here is the distinction between doctors and dentists? Were doctors, with their advanced knowledge of the human body, suspected of being the instigators of magic theft?

One wonders what became of Muggle University professors, particularly scientists and historians (who seem likely to pose problems in the camps because of their specialized knowledge), and of Muggle military members, especially officers.

Are Voldemort and the DEs sufficiently knowledgeable about Muggles to make strategic decisions about which categories of persons to eliminate? Or were/are they guessing at which groups are most dangerous?

[lapin-agile.livejournal.com]

Are Voldemort and the DEs sufficiently knowledgeable about Muggles to make strategic decisions about which categories of persons to eliminate? Or were/are they guessing at which groups are most dangerous?

Let's hope not.

[alt-player.livejournal.com]

Not all doctors, etc. were killed - some escaped the purges and were later elevated to relatively privileged positions, like Hermione's parents who get to travel between camps etc., when Voldemort and his followers had to become realistic about the fact that they couldn't leave vast numbers of people as a laboring class with no support whatsoever in the realm of health and well-being, no matter how awful the conditions would be. Hence Muggles doctoring Muggles.

- Hermione's player

[wintercreek]

Oh goodness, well that's a useful piece of information! Thank you, player.

[alt-player.livejournal.com]

How amusing. A couple of the other players and I had a discussion regarding this very subject a few weeks ago.

We came up with some fantastical ideas and then at the end of the day decided that if hand waving was good enough for JKR, it was good enough for us.

So maybe try not to think about it too much?

Although to be fair, Hogwarts doesn't necessarily indicate the Wizarding population. JKR has said that parents have the option to send their children to Hogwarts, another Wizarding school elsewhere, or to teach them at home. And while our 'elsewhere' option is currently decommissioned, one assumes that there are still plenty of children being educated at home - Hogwarts being a sort of Wizarding Eton, if you like.

Orrrrrr maybe just try not to think about it too much. :)

[longstrider.livejournal.com]

As I said in the post "we may just be hand waving the population problems (as JKR did"

For me the three big questions are 1)How significant were the purges, targeted people, a bunch, 50/50, most or damn near everyone? 1b)Was there time for an mass emigration? 2)Are they attempting to set up a management class of slaves? 3)Treatment of those borderline population cases (squibs and mixed heritage) I know we've seen the law on the last two cases, but the law and actual practice tends to vary a great deal, particularly in opressive dictatorships. Everything else was just setting up those problems/questions.

[alt_moderator]

And those are things you'll have to wait to see in game ;)

[lapin-agile.livejournal.com]

We should add disease to organized extermination as a population-reducer. Arthur testifies that there have been terrible epidemics that have ripped through the camps.

I still think you're right that there must still be a huge disparity of population.



But now, maybe, I'll try not to think about it too much!