OOo!

[sporky_rat]

And now we have an answer from Tosha to Sally-Anne!

He is just smooth. Smooth as butter. Good butter.

Comments

[kiya]

The tactics of the two breakouts are very similar: some people set up a diversion or two (the dragon firework; Peeves with dungbombs) to attract school attention while other people break into U's office, free the prisoner(s), and cause damage.

So once he gets "a tactical team of sixteen-year-olds exists, and I had a run-in with them at the DoM", as soon as he connects that to Harry he's got "a tactical team of sixteen-year-olds exists and is at Harry's command." From there it's hardly a leap to "and they broke him out of Umbridge's", and from there it's only a moment to analyse other actions.

The big leap is not Fawcett, it's Harry.

[cheyinka]

But he already suspects Harry was present: he thinks either Harry or Draco confronted Barty, and that one's presence necessitated the other's (even though that wouldn't have been true pre-Toadifying).

Fawcett is the logical leap because it can happen even if he can't confirm either Harry's or Draco's presence: two kids really thoroughly disappeared, even though they themselves didn't have the resources to make it happen, in a circumstance where adults either dudn't assist or assisted so secretively that no one detected them. A kid really thoroughly disappeared from Hogwarts, and the "signs of struggle" didn't involve any human blood... ergo, maybe they disappeared her too.