Okay, to summarize what we know...

[teceler]

Journal entries:
March 23rd
March 28th
March 29th
April 6th
April 9th
April 10th
April 11th

Post has been update to include information from the latest post (April 11th). Additions are underlined, no longer relevant information is crossed out

General:
"S v. well connected. Towed me along to trysts, drops, safe houses, and points of exchange. Unwittingly betrayed whole nests of traitors."

Barty thinks that the scale of what he's found is a "[t]reasure trove. Both artefact and animate."

Antonin and Barty "[a]gree that this is best kept out of MLE's hands, and in [theirs] instead."

In the aftermath, Antonin is "[s]till not sure how [he] feel[s] about this. Like a foundation has been shaken"

The LP doesn't seem to want Antonin on the capture, either because he wants him at Hogwarts or for other reasons.

"[Bellatrix] was, obv, as interested as we were in the possibility of a sprog" and "If we are able to confirm that rumour is more than just a pipedream, N will be most interested -- I know how heavily matters of the last few years weigh on her. Of course, finding the child would be difficult, but I am certain she would put her foot down once we have." (here because I don't think we've worked out what the heck is with this).

Antonin references Bellatrix being irrational on the matter of this investigation.

Antonin wonders if Barty was "able at all to pin S down any more firmly on dates and times? [he's] been looking over [his] notes and [is] having difficulty making sense of half of [Saggitarius'] babble. [They] may not have overlooked anything, but that does not mean what [they] got was at all useful. Merlin knows how long it will take you to turn any of that into actionable intelligence." ("About as long as it will take me to be satisfied with my investigations here, I suppose.")

Antonin comments that "Telling the difference between well-hidden active sedition and an apolitical devotion to academe without raising suspicion is one thing; doing so while juggling my six thousand other urgent tasks is quite another." and that he has his "ideas for where to look -- she has well and truly isolated herself, which does not rule out those she is not publicly seen to consort with but does suggest [he] ought look at the few she does not shun outright -- but we have been this wrong-footed for so long that [he] will not assume the easy answers are the only answers."

"Weakness: murky timeline. e.g., the trade in infant/toddler paraphernalia. Once? Twice? More?"

Barty's notes:

Prioritising list for follow-up.

Immediate:

check progress in Strangeweale invest.
pull archives re. AD, Order of the Phoenix
get artefacts to Rod for analysis (Also, re. Narcissa: see if she can confirm the snuffbox and the Order of Merlin)
Mugg items to North



ASAP: Retrace surveillance trail. Seize evidence. Impound goods. Surveil/interr./arrest

Ongoing:

x-check names for signif. connection (Maule, Ridley, Crimsons)
list of vendors, off-market + dodgy imports
list of known buyers/barterers/recipients (also, determine destination for impounded items)

Artifacts: this post

Barty found "4 photos circa '79-'80. [and] [r]ecognise[s] half a dozen faces in each, but not all by any means."


Saggitarius:
(We seems to have concluded that this is Fletcher)
Before capture is "in high spirits and oblivious to danger."
Is not "[Toshenka's] preferred house-guest"
Barty "[f]ollowed [the tracer] to Scotland once, then to St David's."
"Mind you, seems the sort to squeak at the threat of pain. May not require extreme measures at all."
Bellatrix "[w]ould like to have questioned S herself. Of course."


Hypatia:
Antonin was able to have a long discussion with and concluded they were nothing other than what they seemed.
With the codename, presumably female.
Antonin "had another long discussion with Hypatia today at lunchtime, and [is] fairly certain at this point she is not one of our Daniels in the lions' den. Or if she is, she has learned to fake entirely too much enthusiasm at the Arts for one of their lot -- she has finally taken [him] up on [his] offer to endow a special collection to save the children the trouble of waiting until [he is] available to unlock [his] office cabinets, and her enthusiasm was, as near as [he] could tell, unfeigned."
(Probably Pince)


Eggman:
Antonin was able to have a long discussion with and concluded they were nothing other than what they seemed.
Referenced as sitting next to Iphigenia on one occasion.

Cinderella:
Antonin got "plenty of time with Cinderella" but is "still not sure about her"
Is avoided at dinners by most of the staff

Sophia:
"has been unwilling to have a conversation about anything other than administrivia; she has been burning the candle at both ends for quite some time. (Which ought to have been a sign, I suppose.)"
Referenced as sitting next to Iphigenia on one occasion.

Mary-Quite-Contrary:
"one of the few Iphigenia does not shun entirely"
Antonin got "a few passing discussions" with her but "got nowhere of use" (he notes that they "have been distracted this week with other considerations")
"Mary-Quite-Contrary and the Fox are two of the staff [Iphigenia] is most charitable towards"
Based on the rhyme, this is probably (as cheyinka pointed out) Pomona

Iphigenia:
"Mary-Quite-Contrary and the Fox are two of the staff she is most charitable towards" (assuming this she references the previous ref to an Iphigenia), and Mary-Quite-Contrary specifically "is one of the few Iphigenia does not shun entirely"
Antonin "still [has] not seen any signs that Iphigenia is communicating secretly with anyone else, on staff or otherwise, but then again, given her accoutrements, she would be prevented from same."
(Is almost certainly Minerva)

Fox:
One of the staff Iphigenia "is most charitable towards"
Is "a rather newer addition" relative to the other staff Antonin is investigating here.
Referenced as sitting next to Iphigenia on one occasion.

Phoenix:
Seems to be Dumbledore.

Baba:
Referenced as sitting next to Iphigenia on one occasion.
In addition to the meaning of crone, is a name for a Babylonian/Akkadian goddess of healing, a name for the deification of baboons in Egyptian mythology, and a Persian honorific meaning "father; grandfather; wise old man"

Tiresias:
Is avoided at dinners by most of the staff.

So eliminating for gender when given and obvious not-fits

Hypatia:
Minerva McGonagall
Gwyndolen Acton
Aurora Sinistra
Septima Vector
Bathseba Babbling
Cordelia Carpenter
Wilhelma Grubbly-Plank
Poppy Pomfrey
Irma Pince
Rolanda Hooch
(I agree with cheyinka that based on the name this is most likely to be Siz or Vector by the nameref though)

Eggman:
Brutka
Gwyndolen Acton
Horace Slughorn
Aurora Sinistra
Septima Vector
Bathseba Babbling
Cordelia Carpenter
Wilhelma Grubbly-Plank
Poppy Pomfrey
Milland
Rolanda Hooch
(Guessed to be Slughorn or Brutka)

Cinderella:
Minerva McGonagall
Gwyndolen Acton
Aurora Sinistra
Septima Vector
Bathseba Babbling
Cordelia Carpenter
Wilhelma Grubbly-Plank
Poppy Pomfrey
Irma Pince
Rolanda Hooch
(We may have a specific name-ref connection with Cordelia Carpenter based on the logic here)
(ladyrelaynie: "What if Cinderella is Acton, and they call her that because she's always trying to marry this or that well connected wizard?")

Sophia:
Minerva McGonagall
Gwyndolen Acton
Aurora Sinistra
Septima Vector
Bathseba Babbling
Cordelia Carpenter
Wilhelma Grubbly-Plank
Poppy Pomfrey
Irma Pince
Rolanda Hooch
(Obvious connection to Minerva, but she's also a strong candidate for Iphigenia)
(cheyinka suggested this could be Poppy or Siz)

Iphigenia:
Minerva McGonagall
Gwyndolen Acton
Septima Vector
Bathseba Babbling
Cordelia Carpenter
Wilhelma Grubbly-Plank
Poppy Pomfrey
Irma Pince
Rolanda Hooch

Fox:
Brutka
Gwyndolen Acton
Aurora Sinistra
Septima Vector
Bathseba Babbling
Cordelia Carpenter
Wilhelma Grubbly-Plank
Irma Pince
Milland
Rolanda Hooch

Baba:
Brutka
Gwyndolen Acton
Horace Slughorn
Aurora Sinistra
Septima Vector
Bathseba Babbling
Cordelia Carpenter
Wilhelma Grubbly-Plank
Poppy Pomfrey
Milland
Rolanda Hooch
(ellemir: "Baba as a Persian honorific meaning elderly man certainly fits Antonin's background.
Wasn't Sluggie their teacher while at Hogwarts? Antonin certainly seems to treat him kindly and with respect, considering what a duffer the Canon Slughorn was.")

Tiresias:
Brutka
Gwyndolen Acton
Horace Slughorn
Septima Vector
Bathseba Babbling
Cordelia Carpenter
Wilhelma Grubbly-Plank
Milland
Rolanda Hooch
(Carpenter, as divination teacher?)

there is probably more here, but I'm beginning to go in circles, so hopefully someone else will have ideas.

Comments

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

Reading Lucius's last entry. If AN is Antonin Nikolaevich, as I suspect, he has flooed Malfoy and set him in motion. Is this a related matter or not? It may just be regarding Pansy and the threats made against her.

UA is almost certainly Ursula Avery and J is her son Julius Avery, a recent council member and Rons sponsor in the badge competition.

Lucius is using Narcissa's stationery to lure her in.

[teceler]

...oh, that's who those are.

He has a similar one here, actually, a from a few days earlier.

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

AB is Ari Baddock, working on the others.

Looks like they are going after the elements behind Malfoys fall from favour, maybe.

[(Anonymous)]

I saw AN and immediately got worried it was Teddy's dad, though I couldn't find a first name for him in canon or elsewhere. More likely to be Antonin Nicholaevitch, now that you mention it. I would like to know what the connection is, if any, between what Lucius is working on and Barty and Tosha's Sagittarius, if it was Antonin.

[ladyrelaynie]

Ugh, sorry, this was me, above.

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

Antonin has had several conversations with Sinistra about Hypatia. The latest was last week regarding her party invites. I doubt he would give this appellation to anyone else.

[(Anonymous)]

"[Bellatrix] was, obv, as interested as we were in the possibility of a sprog" and "If we are able to confirm that rumour is more than just a pipedream, N will be most interested -- I know how heavily matters of the last few years weigh on her. Of course, finding the child would be difficult, but I am certain she would put her foot down once we have." (here because I don't think we've worked out what the heck is with this).

I took this to mean they're sniffing at Sirius' trail, ie: baby scare with Terri from a few years back. Narcissa would be very interested in finding a descendant of Sirius' if it meant she could gain access to 12 Grimmauld Place. Not just Narcissa, but Bellatrix as well, since that gives them the access to their familial blood ties, magical or not.

I could be wrong though.

Sorry, that was me

[(Anonymous)]

Silvery_wraith on LJ, wouldn't let me log in properly on DW.

Re: Sorry, that was me

[teceler]

That would make sense.

But when you combine that with "Weakness: murky timeline. e.g., the trade in infant/toddler paraphernalia. Once? Twice? More?" I'm wondering if they're picking up on something related to Moodey Doo and misinterpreting it.

[(Anonymous)]

I was thinking along these same lines, but with Regulus instead.

Sirius mentioned that he was having trouble getting ahold of Terri, didn't he? I'll check in a minute.

I agree that getting into Grimmauld is probably what that part's about.

[ladyrelaynie]

This was me too.

Re: Sophia or Iphigenia

[ladyrelaynie]

In the April 6th discussion above, Antonin mentions Minerva by name. They're using coded names presumably because they know someone might be reading private messages.

Could that mean that Minerva is neither Sophia nor Iphigenia? Or that he just forgot to use her code name in that instance?

Re: Sophia or Iphigenia

[teceler]

Well, in that instance they're mostly talking about the incident with Hydra and Justin (there are just enough mentions that I felt it worth including), so it would make sense to refer to Minerva without the code. Using it might actually be counterproductive in this instance.

Re: Sophia or Iphigenia

[ladyrelaynie]

True.

Re: Sophia or Iphigenia

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

I think he was using Minerva as it wasn't directly related to the case in hand.
If he talks about school minutiae with pseudonyms, someone observant could match an action with a code name and crack it.

Though thinking about it, they must be concerned that someone highly placed is a risk to their investigation. Only Bella and Barty have been so cagey before.
Is this a continuation of the Mulciber/ Maule investigation? Hence them worrying about potential risk in PM's. If so maybe any risk to the order has happened coincidentally. I wouldn't be surprised if Mundungus was involved in lots of different plots.
Another thought, did They mean they found actual Phoenix feathers? I don't remember ever hearing where Fawkes is? So a real risk or a red herring?

Re: Sophia or Iphigenia

[ladyrelaynie]

I took phoenix feathers to mean traces of Dumbledore, not actual feathers.

Mundungus definitely would have his hands in lots of pies.

Let's hope the "nests of traitors" are Dogstar, and not Order. (Not a very charitable hope, but I still hope it.)

[teceler]

I feel observed.

Okay. Iphigenia is almost certainly Minerva, then. ("I still have not seen any signs that Iphigenia is communicating secretly with anyone else, on staff or otherwise, but then again, given her accoutrements, she would be prevented from same.") I need to think about the others some more.

[stinaleigh]

Hypatia is Pince, I think. Dolohov is known for lending his books to students and she would be in alt over getting some of his volumes or translations.

[teceler]

Hrm, that's a thought. Siz is also still plausible, given the ref, but-- well.

Who are Baba and Tiresias (who is apparently avoided at least at suppers both most of the staff, along with Cinderella)? And how many of these do we have, now?

...9. We're probably still missing some codenames, though probably not his prime suspects. Hm.

[ladyrelaynie]

I'm thinking Acton for Baba, since it means old ugly woman (from Baba Yaga, a witch from Slavic mythology).

Cinderella and Tiresias: most people tend to avoid them

Still no definite idea who Cinderella is. Oh wait, if Hypatia is Pince, Cinderella might then be Sinistra. But people don't avoid Sinistra.

Tiresias is a blind seer in Greek mythology. Maybe Brutka? Though I haven't seen any mention of people avoiding him either.

Eggman, as I have said before, is most likely Slughorn (looks like a Walrus; Beatles song I am the Walrus). Unless he is Tiresias since people definitely avoid old Sluggy.

[cheyinka]

Hypatia is almost certainly Pince, yes. Hypatia has been connected with the Library of Alexandria since at least the 1700s CE, so that fits - I had been thinking astronomer → Sinistra or mathematician → Vector, not librarian → Pince.

[worthywords]

I also think Hypatia is Pince. I got curious and went looking her up in Wikipedia. Hypatia lived in Alexandria, the home of the famous Library of Alexandria.

The person in the blue house likes eggs; the person with the car lives next to the one who eats eggs

[cheyinka]

Okay, so we have:
Sagittarius: Mundungus Fletcher
Iphigenia: Minerva
Mary-Quite-Contrary: Sprout
Hypatia: Irma Pince
Tiresias: A blind seer whom Hera turned into a woman; ladyrelaynie and teceler suggested Carpenter, and the divination teacher would certainly seem to fit.
Eggman: My guess is Slughorn, and ladyrelaynie suggested that he could be given that pseudonym for looking like a walrus. If it isn't Slughorn... is anybody noteworthily round? I suppose it could be Brutka, who used to be Care of Magical Creatures instructor...
The Fox: Someone who Minerva does not shun, unlike the rest of the staff, and "newer" - this would eliminate Slughorn (taught when Dolohov was a student), Poppy (in charge of the infirmary when the Marauders were students), and Sprout (pretty sure she taught pre-Protectorate), which doesn't help much because Sprout is definitely someone else and Slughorn probably is.
Sophia: "burning the candle at both ends" and unwilling to discuss anything other than administrivia with Dolohov, "which ought to have been a sign"; my tentative vote is for Poppy, even though I can't think of a good way to justify the pseudonym. If it isn't Poppy it might be Sinistra; either of them might be given that pseudonym out of respect, maybe?
Cinderella: Avoided by many, someone Dolohov is unsure of; possibly Acton, because she wants to marry a well-connected wizard?

Re: The person in the blue house likes eggs; the person with the car lives next to the one who eats

[ellemir]

While within the game I have no reason to question these identifications, something occurred to me in the wider context of canon.

Tiresias was known for making cryptic but true statements, he died after drinking tainted water and being hit by an arrow.
Doesn't that sound a lot like Dumbledore ?

Clearly someone is having great fun, messing with our heads.

Re: The person in the blue house likes eggs; the person with the car lives next to the one who eats

[ellemir]

Oh, and while I originally made the suggestion lightly.

Brutkasten is the word for an egg incubator in German. Knowing Dolohovs love for languages could this be the solution?
Eggman > Brutka

While I love the idea of Slughorn and the Walrus, I haven't found him to be familiar with somewhat modern music. He seems to like a very narrow range of classical music.
Am I forgetting something or perhaps being overanalytical? If I am barking up the wrong tree please let us know.