Speculation time

[stinaleigh]

OK, I know I'm probably behind the times, but something just occured to me today. And I got the expected "no comment" from my player contact. :)


So who is going on the run at the end of the year? I haven't spent much time thinking on this, but with the discussions this week, I suddenly have a scary preposition...

Draco, Hermione, and Hydra or Justin.

I don't think it will be Harry. He will be the one back at Hogwarts holding the fort, a la Neville in the books. Not that I don't think Alternity!Neville couldn't do it, but this is Alternity after all, no matter how much they fit in canon.

Discuss.

Comments

[ladyrelaynie]

Argh! I just spent ten minutes making a post, then promptly deleted it.

The upshot of it was that I think Draco and Hermione are pretty good candidates for running. Teddy Nott is screwed up enough that an attack is inevitable if nothing changes. And if either or both Draco and Hermione have to rescue each other and are caught mudblood-loving or having a wand then they have reason to run.

If Justin, would probably be because Bella or someone else finds out he's muggleborn. Hydra, I don't know. In her current state it probably wouldn't take much for her if hex someone up one side and down the other. Here's hoping it's her mother.

Then I had a brainwave: what if it's Terry who goes with D and H? Then Draco (Ron) would be jealous of Terry (Harry) and that would be pretty close to the book.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. I sometimes think speculating is half the fun of these kinds of thing. Let's see if I can keep from deleting this one!

[cheyinka]

How sure are we that someone will spend a year avoiding Voldemort? I mean, they do need to find all the horcruxes (and how many might there be now, with Voldemort having had all that additional time alive?), but I don't think we're lacking in tension and (narratively) need some of the kids to be fugitives.

Too, it's not a matter of hiding out in non-wizard territory and living like Muggles, since everywhere (inside the wards) is wizard territory.

It might be interesting if some folks go on the run outside the wards, though...

[stinaleigh]

I'm not entirely sure anyone will be on the run, but it is a huge part of the narrative structure of canon that I don't see it being disregarded in full.

[cheyinka]

The last book also involves Voldemort taking over, and short of deciding to teach a class personally, I'm not sure how much more over he can take! :D

Also, I think some of the narrative impact of "and now, we go on the run!" would be lost because we haven't been experiencing the alternate universe through one perspective; unless everyone, or everyone in the Order, left Hogwarts, it wouldn't feel the same.

...which, come to think of it, would actually be pretty interesting to see! Instead of Voldemort taking over, the Order begins open resistance to the regime, and the kids in the Order leave so that they can be part of said open resistance.

[It occurred to me, just now, that what precipitated that might be Minerva's death; perhaps even Minerva's death at Snape's hand, to set her free from the bracelet and prevent her from unwillingly betraying them. :( :( ]

[(Anonymous)]

Eek. I was just thinking about who the person Barty Crouch caught was. They called him Sagittarius, which is the archer, so I thought of Hagrid or Firenze. But then I thought possibly it meant someone whose zodiac sign was Sag. Looking through everyone's birthdays, I saw that several of the adults are Sagittarius signs. Coupling that with what Barty said about the person giving up whole troves of traitors, if it is someone from the Order, almost everyone would be betrayed (including Harry incidentally ). All this is to say that I think you might be onto something with that idea, cheyinka!

[ladyrelaynie]

Sorry, that was me, above.

[teceler]

Hm. I would expect something to have happened by now if it was someone in the Order, is all.

--who were the ones with Sagittarius signs?

[ladyrelaynie]

Bill and Sirius and Kingsley, if I remember right.

[teceler]

Well, we've heard from Bill and Sirius since then, but...

The description doesn't really fit Kingsley? But I don't know. I feel like I'm missing something really obvious with this whole thing.

[ladyrelaynie]

I had thought it was Kingsley, since we hadn't heard from him since he reported back on the Ouroboros hunt, but he just accepted the invitation to the burrow, so I really don't know.

Yeah, I know the feeling. Too many possibilities!

[cheyinka]

Looking back at Dolohov's comments when Sagittarius was caught, it almost has to be someone in the Order:
"Still not sure how I feel about this. Like a foundation has been shaken, I suppose."
and
"Telling the difference between well-hidden active sedition and an apolitical devotion to academe without raising suspicion is one thing; doing so while juggling my six thousand other urgent tasks is quite another. I've my ideas for where to look -- she has well and truly isolated herself, which does not rule out those she is not publicly seen to consort with but does suggest I ought look at the few she does not shun outright -- but we have been this wrong-footed for so long that I will not assume the easy answers are the only answers."
Both make me think that suspicion was placed on Minerva - and I can't imagine who would be linked to "whole troves of traitors" and be able to plausibly implicate Minerva but not be in the Order. (And I can't imagine who that might be if it isn't Minerva. Poppy?)

[teceler]

We've heard from Poppy. We've heard from--have we heard from Pomona? --she contacted Alice about Hydra and Justin, so yeah.

Who haven't we heard from in the Order, for that matter? Or about?

...Minerva could have non-Order contacts, we saw that with Selwyn's plot. I--

That does sound like suspicion being placed on Minerva. I'm just not sure who could be Sagittarius.

Hm.

[ladyrelaynie]

I went back and looked again and there are two different systems of zodiac, sidereal and classical. Those who fit sidereal Sagittarius are Frank, Alice, Moody, Sirius and Severus. Those fitting the classical Sagittarius are Bill, Charlie, and Sirius. ( Kingsley's birthday is past both of them, he's not a Sag.)

The question is, which system does Hogwarts use?

The only person who fits both is Sirius.

Let's hope I'm barking up the wrong tree.

[cheyinka]

And, actually, it occurs to me: who might, narratively, be in the same position that Snape was in the books at this point? That is, someone who Our Protagonists do not trust (despite Minerva apparently trusting em), who might use Minerva's death as proof to Voldemort that e is trustworthy, but who isn't actually a supporter of Voldemort?

Snape himself isn't a great fit for that role, but I'm not sure who might fit better...

[teceler]

Snape has mentioned that he could try going back if they really needed a spy on the Council and no one else could do it. But, hrm.

...hm.

How close to the end of the book are we now? Because I'm not thinking of anyone who would fit really without a lot happening, unless Minerva knows something that she can't pass along, but...

Hm.

(also, augh)

[ladyrelaynie]

The school year ends in June, I think, so pretty close.

[ladyrelaynie]

Someone who Voldemort thinks is on his side, but is actually an order member? I hate to say it but . . . Draco or Harry or Hydra, or even Bill maybe? Any one of them having to kill McGonagall makes me want to cry. But again, that makes sense.

[teceler]

...that is... that is also a possibility.

[cheyinka]

If Draco succeeds in the challenge, or perhaps instead if he fails, Voldemort could direct him to eliminate a traitor personally - or maybe have him choose between a traitor and his father? It would be tactically useful to have him 'prove himself' to Voldemort. On the other hand, the Order would be inclined to expect that Draco had done it to prove himself, especially with the journals and the Order lock.

The same problem would arise with Harry, and though I can imagine Snape killing Minerva when Harry hesitates to keep him from having committed murder, again, I don't think anyone in the Order would buy Harry genuinely supporting Voldemort, and I'm not sure Voldemort would buy Snape having hidden in the school to protect Harry. (Or having hidden for any other reason Voldemort would like.)

[sugarjet03]

Part of me still thinks that Dolohov took an unbreakable vow to protect Draco at Narcissa's request, and that's what the fallingout between him and Lucius is about. Which could make him the Snape in this scenario.

I also think the Sagittarius description sounds like Siz. I also think that would personally affect Dolohov more than Poppy.

[cheyinka]

The problem with it being Siz is that she isn't an Order member, and isn't really connected to any conspirators, so unless Sagittarius is implicating her incorrectly (a possibility!) she doesn't seem likely.

I can imagine Dolohov killing Minerva to protect any of his students, or to protect her reputation (i.e. to keep anyone from knowing she wasn't loyal to Voldemort), or to give her a more merciful death than the bracelet would. But I can't imagine the Order ever trusting him, or him doing it to ingratiate himself to the Order.

[teceler]

Unless Minerva knows something we don't, or something really significant happens between now and the end-of-year, yeah.

He and Raz were the two I was thinking of who fit the whole ambiguous loyalties thing, but.

I can't really see Dolohov working with the Order, we can definitely agree on that. I--could see him quite possibly pulling some of the ISS into whatever he ends up planning if he's pushed far enough, though.

And on Siz--assuming Sagittarius is Order-affliated, she is known to have close ties with Poppy and Pomona, and she did work out that thing for them, which could put her under suspicion. And if they aren't--

I don't think it's likely, but it's possible Siz has been working with some kind of group.

[(Anonymous)]

Does it have to change his alliegance to the Order? If it were a complete parallel to the book it would. But there are other options, like you said.

Have we considered if Sagittarius is Rachel? I find it unlikely, since I think Bill would have mentioned if he hadn't seen her lately, but she definitely knows who some of the Order members are, and we haven't heard from her lately. But she did say that if she was caught, she would rather die before she had to talk. That's why she killed Stephen at Saltash. So maybe it's not her.

[sugarjet03]

Sorry, that was me.

[ladyrelaynie]

As I understood it, the falling out with Lucius was more for show than anything else. Though I think they did quarrel initially. I've been translating the Bulgarian portions with iTranslate, and though it isn't exact, the gist is things like "I hate this." Using a different language to communicate privately in plain view, perhaps?