Meep

[batrachian]

So. Tosha and Barty are definitely on the trail of the Order.

My theories on codenames:

Sophia: Acton
Mary-Quite-Contrary: Pomfrey or possibly Sprout?
Iphigenia: quite clearly Minerva
Fox: ...my money here is on Brutka (though obviously Tosha doesn't know just how close he is)

Have we figured out who The Leak is yet?

I have this lurking suspicion that the upcoming Order meeting is going to go Very Badly somehow.

Comments

[cheyinka]

Mary-Quite-Contrary is almost certainly Sprout - "how does your garden grow?", after all.
I agree that Iphigenia is probably Minerva, but I don't think Fox is Brutka, if Fox is one of the two that Minerva is "most charitable toward" - that would seem too obvious, to me. On the other hand I can't think who else would be new to staff and as close to Minerva as Sprout! Snape-as-Milland, maybe?

Has Acton been there since the time Dumbledore was not in hiding? Honestly, if Iphigenia didn't seem more likely to be Minerva from context, I would say Minerva was the best fit for Sophia, both because the pseudonym fits her name so well and "has been burning the candle at both ends for quite some time" seems to fit Minerva's post-bracelet public attitude pretty well.

[batrachian]

*sheepish face* I somehow completely missed the rhyme ref. Definitely Sprout, then.

Agree that Brutka=Fox is not a great fit. Milland is...definitely a possibility.

[stormyhearted]

I was trying to think of who would be in the photos they wouldn't recognize already- the only people I can think of they'd be surprised by is the Weasleys. Which does not bode well for Molly.

[batrachian]

...that had not even occurred to me.

*dawning horror*

God, this is going to be SO TERRIBLE.

[annia]

I don't think the Weasleys were in the original Order before Voldemort's downfall (I'm going by the canon). I think they joined after GoF and Voldy's return. So I don't know if in Alternity if Molly or Arthur will be in those photos or not. I can't remember how they ended up joining the Order in Alternity.

I've check in my copy of OotP who Moody names in the photo he shows Harry.

Moody
Dumbledore
Dedalus Diggle
Marlene McKinnon - killed two weeks after photo was taken
Frank and Alice Longbottom - tortured into insanity
Lupin
Benjy Fenwick - killed
Edgar Bones - brother of Amelia Bones, killed him and his family
Caradoc Dearborn - vanished 6 months after photo was taken, body never found
Hagrid
Elphias Doge
Gideon and Fabian Prewett - killed
Aberforth Dumbledore
Dorcas Meadowes - Voldemort killed
Sirius
Lily and James Potter

But that's the canon photo.

[stormyhearted]

That does reassure me somewhat- though we don't know who is in the other photos, or when the Weasleys joined.

[annia]

Just re-read it. Barty says 4 photos. And also says "One of these you might like as a trophy, once we've mined it thoroughly for useful information. Quite a good shot of three whose pelts you claimed. Helps pinpoint the date, too--somewhat earlier than the others."

So I think 1 is the canon photo because Tosha killed Molly's brothers (didn't he?) although I'm not sure who else in the photo he's killed. But then the other 3 could have present Order members in them if they're not as old as the canon photo.

So I've got myself all worried again. But I don't have the time to trawl through old entries to find out when the Weasleys joined. :(

[cheyinka]

Four photos, with enough total people in them that recognizing six isn't recognizing "nearly all" or "almost all" of them, and all the photos taken during canon's "First Wizarding War". Bill was born in 1970, so the Weasley kids aren't going to be in them, and judging by http://harrypotter.wikia.com/wiki/Molly Molly probably won't be either, if she wasn't an Order member during that time in canon.

Supposing Arthur is, I'm not sure that implicates the Weasleys too much: he's dead and at least Bill and Percy are 'obviously' aligned with the Protectorate, and Ron's a contestant in Who Wants To Be A Councilwizard? so if he had been on the 'wrong' side, well, that happened.

[cheyinka]

Also, from Dolohov's earlier entry about investigating:
"Was able to have long conversations with Hypatia and Eggman, neither of whom strike me as anything other than what they purport to be, and plenty of time with Cinderella. Am still not sure about her."

Eggman seems likely to be Slughorn; if it isn't I suppose it could be Brutka, which would be hilarious.
Hypatia seems likely to be Sinistra.
Who might Dolohov have spent "plenty of time" with?

teceler posted a list of Hogwarts staff in the Speculation time thread. I've taken people Dolohov wouldn't give pseudonyms to out of the list, and added my comments:

Minerva McGonagall - either Sophia or Iphigenia
??? Brutka
Gwyndolen Acton
Horace Slughorn - likely to be Eggman
Aurora Sinistra - probably Hypatia
Septima Vector - probably Hypatia if Sinistra isn't
Bathseba Babbling
Cuthbert Binns - unlikely to be given a pseudonym or investigated
Pomona Sprout - almost certainly Mary-Quite-Contrary
Cordelia Carpenter
Wilhelma Grubbly-Plank
Poppy Pomfrey
Irma Pince
??? Milland (i.e. Snape)
Rolanda Hooch

[worthywords]

Sophia and Minerva are both names for the goddess of wisdom. My money's on Minerva is Sophia.

[cheyinka]

The only reason I hesitate in making that assignment is that it seemed possible that Iphigenia was Minerva, no one else immediately stood out as an obvious Iphigenia, and Minerva can't be both. :D

[ladyrelaynie]

Pretty sure Slughorn is Eggman, since he looks like a walrus (though it's interesting that Dolohov and Barty both know that song. Implies either that the Beatles were wizards or that they were so popular even wizards have heard of them). It makes sense for Hypatia to be Sinistra, though she could also be Cinderella (married Raz).

The Iphigenia reference makes me nervous. In the myth she's sacrificed to appease Artemis. Is there a candidate for an Artemis ? Bella maybe?

Is McGonagall in the picture of the order from the books? I think that's what Barty's referring to in those four pictures he wants Dolohov to identify, that might be surprising to Dolohov. I don't know that Molly being in it would be surprising, since her brothers definitely were)

[cheyinka]

And here I was thinking Dr. Eggman, though I grant that Dolohov being familiar with the Sonic the Hedgehog games is even less likely :D

http://harrypotter.wikia.com/wiki/Order_of_the_Phoenix_photograph does not list her. It also doesn't list Molly or Arthur.

[jenett]

The Warlocks (one of Lucius's fav groups) have been mentioned as covering a bunch of Beatles songs.

[cheyinka]

If Cinderella is someone who "married royalty" (rather than being a mistreated princess, or a servant, or having a noteworthy stepmother or godmother), it doesn't make sense for it to be Sinistra, since Dolohov is "still not sure about her." On the other hand, no one else at Hogwarts is married.

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

My only speculation is Cinderella could be Grubbly-Plank.

It's a real stretch, but Cinders was grubbing around in the ashes. and ashes come from wood, thus Plank.

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

Hmm, a grub can also be a drudge.

[cheyinka]

Fletcher-arrows-archer-sagittarius is a stretch too, so that seems plausible!

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

Bathsheba married King David.

[cheyinka]

Well, that'd fit for a name pun, but it's a little more of a stretch than Sinistra (because she married a Councilwizard) or Grubbly-Plank (because planks are wood and burned wood becomes cinders).

(I love that this community does so much speculating - it's half the fun of watching the game!)

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

Should we add Cedric Diggory to the list?

Would Dolohov consider him a potential threat?

[cheyinka]

Hmmm.

I think Dolohov would definitely consider him a potential threat, but he'd consider him part of the mysterious group of students[, some of] which went to the Department of Mysteries. I don't think he'd be lumped in with the teachers and staff. It's also extremely, vanishingly unlikely that Mundungus could implicate him: he could likely say that some of the teachers (whether or not he named any) were definitely anti-Voldemort, but I can't imagine that he could say anything noteworthy about the students. (Or even about Cedric's parents, for that matter.)

[batrachian]

Regarding one of the points originally raised:

How probable is it that Sagittarius is, in fact, Mundungus Fletcher? He knows about the Order, he's been out of useful contact for a long while, his canonical counterpart has a history of selling Order property for a quick buck...

[stinaleigh]

Ooh, I kind of like (hate) that theory.

[cheyinka]

It would certainly explain the mention of artefacts, yes, and the lack of physical courage. (And it would make Sirius, the only Sagittarius by both zodiac rendering, a very nice red herring for readers to worry about, haha.)

The question is: when did we last hear from him, and who could he implicate? Does he know Dumbledore's new identity, for example? He would absolutely be able to implicate Minerva and at least Molly and Arthur, if not also Charlie and Bill; the other Weasleys I think would be safe. (I don't think he's on the Order lock. At least I want to think he isn't, because that way the Order can keep using their journals!)

[batrachian]

I'm not sure that there's been any sort of definitive contact for a very long time; the only references I can actually remember are various Order folks kvetching about how he won't answer the phone (or whatever method they're using). Clearly, there isn't a player journal, though he may have one and just Not Use It (like Moody, albeit for different reasons).

If he is on the Lock, though, then it's already far FAR too late for...really, everyone. And also, if they had that sort of concrete evidence, I don't think Tosha would be speculating about the unknowns he is. I think we're probably safe on that front. Barely. It's not a pleasant thought, though.

[cheyinka]

Rhymes-With-Rudy has used his journal at least twice, though, and of course he gets mentioned in every meeting minutes. I think Mundungus has to have a journal - I mean, Alice and Frank have journals, and they're about as off-the-grid as possible - and so the fact that no one's mentioned talking to him by journal suggests he's neither "in the Order" nor "on the Order lock". It still gives me the jibblies worrying about it, of course.

It does make it harder to guess when he was last really involved with Order-y things, though, and that'd be important for guessing how much he can consciously or unconsciously betray.

Jibbly-making thought #2: what if Dolohov goes to Minerva and asks her something directly? Like, "did you know that Milland was being impersonated?" or "did you know that Sprout had traitorous sympathies?" or whatever. Voldemort's "gift" doesn't let him see her thoughts, but it does let him observe her, which means simply asking the question puts whoever he names in danger, if perhaps not as much as if he'd asked Voldemort personally.

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

Just realised it HAS to be Mundungus. He is a Fletcher, or arrow maker. Who else could be Sagittarius?

Dammit

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

How did I miss that for so long?

gold star!

[cheyinka]

:light dawns:

Of course! Fletcher → arrows → archer → Sagittarius.

That's amazing. You're amazing. :D

Re: gold star!

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

Nope! I am here soundly kicking myself for missing it for so long.

And sad to have my fears confirmed

Re: gold star!

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

Can only hope that he led them to lots of his thieving friends and they waste lots of time and resources going astray.

Re: gold star!

[cheyinka]

Yeah, definitely. "Troves of traitors" is less worrisome (not not worrisome) if at least some of the troves are 'just' thieves.

Re: gold star!

[cheyinka]

Well, at least it isn't someone entirely disastrous to the Order, just... substantially disastrous? :D

Re: gold star!

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

True

[ladyrelaynie]

Oh my God. Obviously! I remember thinking it might be Mundungus, then saying, "but no, he isn't an archer." D'oh!

[(Anonymous)]

Crap, the thimble Rod is talking about May be Walburga's, in which case you could be right.

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

That was me!

[kiya]

Uh. Fletcher. Makes arrows. Sagittarius the archer.

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

Do you remember the female spying years bacK at Hogwarts? The main suspects were Acton, Hooch and Sinestra. What if they are the one under suspicion? We never knew who they were working for?

I suspect Acton is the spy and Iphigenia. She has always been described as having little time for most of the staff, I think.
She does associate with Hooch, the Fox for being fast on a broom?
And Sprout has had more conversations with her than most others.

My only other thought is Brutka has been described as a redhead, so may be the Fox.
And surely Sophia must be Minerva.

[cheyinka]

We know so little about Acton (at least as far as I remember) that any pseudonym assigned her may as well be at random. If Iphigenia is the spy, though, whether Acton or someone else, does that imply that she's intended to be sacrificed (i.e. revealed) at some point, to distract the anti-Voldemort forces somehow? I mean, the pseudonyms were clearly not chosen at random by either the players or the characters: aside from "shunning" most of the staff, and associating with Mary-Quite-Contrary, Dolohov doesn't give us any clues as to who she might be aside from his (or Barty's, I suppose) choice of pseudonym.

[ellemir.livejournal.com]

Maybe the sacrifice implies Iphigenia is somebody's pawn?

[cheyinka]

Also, having been looking at the Harry Potter wikia wiki, I have to ask if anyone else thinks it's hilarious that said wiki defines a snuffbox as "a decorative box that often contained powder that a witch would use as cosmetics."